Hard to believe but seems credible. A brilliant mathematician developed a formula for risk assessment associated with debt pools. It greatly simplified risk analysis in the fixed income world and facilitated an explosion in collateralized debt obligations. And, in parallel with the CDO growth, credit default swaps also exploded. The market for CDS grew to $62 trillion. Yep, with a big T. For scale, the 2007 US GDP was $14 trillion.
Check out the article in Wired.
The formula also apparently over-simplified the analysis and caused ratings agencies to greatly underestimate the risk of pooled debt, especially in the mortgage market. When the economy weakened and mortgage defaults began to grow, the model fell apart. And so did the risk assessment of CDOs. And then Bear, Stearns ... and Lehman Brothers ... and etc etc.
For you conspiracy buffs out there, the mathematician behind this formula was born in China and has since returned there. Put that one in your alt-war pipe and smoke it!
Check out the article in Wired.
The formula also apparently over-simplified the analysis and caused ratings agencies to greatly underestimate the risk of pooled debt, especially in the mortgage market. When the economy weakened and mortgage defaults began to grow, the model fell apart. And so did the risk assessment of CDOs. And then Bear, Stearns ... and Lehman Brothers ... and etc etc.
For you conspiracy buffs out there, the mathematician behind this formula was born in China and has since returned there. Put that one in your alt-war pipe and smoke it!
