Money | For Stocks, the Worst Decade Ever | WSJ.com

No surprise that the 'aughts were not a happy decade for stock portfolios. As decades go, it was really a flop as this article shows. Even the 1930's provided a slightly better performance ('tho still a loss) than the 'aughts. A key bottom line question is what should investors plan-for as return from stocks in the next decade? The past may not be much of a predictor. This article suggests 7% may be a better target.

Humor | Hollywood Squares |

FOR THOSE OF US WHO REMEMBER 

Hollywood Squares
These great questions and answers are from the days when ' Hollywood Squares' game show responses were spontaneous, not scripted, as they are now. Peter Marshall was the host asking the questions, of course..

Q.. Paul, what is a good reason for pounding meat?
A. Paul Lynde (About fifteen minutes later): Loneliness! And the audience laughed for another 10 to 15 minutes.

Q. Do female frogs croak?
A. Paul Lynde: If you hold their little heads under water long enough.

Q. If you're going to make a parachute jump, at least how high should you be?
A. Charley Weaver: Three days of steady drinking should do it.

Q. True or False, a pea can last as long as 5,000 years.
A. George Gobel: Boy, it sure seems that way sometimes.

Q. You've been having trouble going to sleep. Are you probably a man or a woman?
A. Don Knotts: That's what's been keeping me awake.

Q. According to Cosmopolitan, if you meet a stranger at a party and you think that he is attractive, is it okay to come out and ask him if he's married?
A.. Rose Marie: No wait until morning.

Q. Which of your five senses tends to diminish as you get older?
A. Charley Weaver: My sense of decency..

Q. In Hawaiian, does it take more than three words to say 'I Love You'?
A. Vincent Price: No, you can say it with a pineapple and a twenty..

Q. What are 'Do It,' 'I Can Help,' and 'I Can't Get Enough'?
A. George Gobel: I don't know, but it's coming from the next apartment.

Q. As you grow older, do you tend to gesture more or less with your hands while talking?
A. Rose Marie: You ask me one more growing old question Peter, and I'll give you a gesture you'll never forget.

Q. Paul, why do Hell's Angels wear leather?
A. Paul Lynde: Because chiffon wrinkles too easily.

Q. Charley, you've just decided to grow strawberries. Are you going to get any during the first year?
A. Charley Weaver: Of course not, I'm too busy growing strawberries.

Q. In bowling, what's a perfect score?
A. Rose Marie: Ralph, the pin boy.

Q. It is considered in bad taste to discuss two subjects at nudist camps. One is politics, what is the other?
A. Paul Lynde: Tape measures.

Q. During a tornado, are you safer in the bedroom or in the closet?
A. Rose Marie: Unfortunately Peter, I'm always safe in the bedroom.

Q. Can boys join the Camp Fire Girls?
A. Marty Allen: Only after lights out.

Q. When you pat a dog on its head he will wag his tail. What will a goose do?
A. Paul Lynde: Make him bark?

Q. If you were pregnant for two years, what would you give birth to?
A. Paul Lynde: Whatever it is, it would never be afraid of the dark.

Q. According to Ann Landers, is there anything wrong with getting into the habit of kissing a lot of people?
A. Charley Weaver: It got me out of the army.

Q. It is the most abused and neglected part of your body, what is it?
A. Paul Lynde: Mine may be abused, but it certainly isn't neglected.

Q. Back in the old days, when Great Grandpa put horseradish on his head, what was he trying to do?
A. George Gobel: Get it in his mouth.

Q. Who stays pregnant for a longer period of time, your wife or your elephant?
A. Paul Lynde: Who told you about my elephant?

Q. When a couple have a baby, who is responsible for its sex?
A. Charley Weaver: I'll lend him the car, the rest is up to him

Q. Jackie Gleason recently revealed that he firmly believes in them and has actually seen them on at least two occasions. What are they?
A. Charley Weaver: His feet.

Q. According to Ann Landers, what are two things you should never do in bed?
A Paul Lynde: Point and laugh

Business | Cost Cutting Innovation | WSJ

You gotta find this guy interesting. Loves recessions. Talks pay toilets and standing-room-only slots on his planes. The transition of airlines from luxury service to transportation commodity is now becoming complete.

Math | Simpson's Paradox | WSJ

Is unemployment now higher or lower than in the early recession of the 1980's. Yes! No! Both! Check this article for the implications of data aggregation in statistical analysis. So, if you're looking for a clever way to dispute a statistical analysis you dislike, you can declare "Simpson's Paradox" and walk away! Or just follow the path of the screaming talk show hosts ... if the facts get in the way of your beliefs, change the facts!

Tech | Cable Clutter Solved! | Silver Clipboard

Tying up your computer cable mess with a daisy chain from Wellington Grey on Vimeo.

Humor | Blogs | Wired

Full of turkey and dressing and need a diversion ... these will get you chuckling (or groaning).

Tech | Living with Data | TEDIndia

Tech | Living with Data | Ted India

There's some amazing new thinking about tech here ... like it's stepping out of the monitor and onto your hand, floor, wall, paper ... you name it!

Thanksgiving | Giving Thanks this Year | Noonan_WSJ

We all have something to be thankful for this year. Here is Peggy Noonan's veiwpoint.

Healthcare | The Henry Ford of Heart Surgery | WSJ

Politicians bicker. Bloggers rant. Talk radio pundits scream. Seniors protest. Uninsured agonize. While we all swirl but do little about getting the cost of healthcare down, here's an article about a success story. It will be a pity if we have to offshore healthcare in order to manage the costs. Everyone here loves their little piece of waste in the healthcare system ... be it insurers, lawyers, doctors, hospitals, pharma or patients.

Time | No Time to Read This? Read This | WSJ

Time management techniques reviewed here. I'm intrigued with David Allen's GTD but not sure I'm willing to invest the time (no pun intended). The Pomodoro Technique is intriguing ... may give that a try. For me, a written to-do list and careful management of e-mail makes a big difference. Also, just get it done, stop over-analyzing it.

Money | Dow Priced in Gold | Kedrosky

Money | Who's Filing for Bankruptcy | Fancystats

not who you might think ... check out this graphic

War | No More Trouble | YouTube

Games | Ball | Dogpaddler

This little challenge will drive you crazy.

Money | Return To The Giant Pool of Money | NPR

A year ago this last September was the big crunch ... no one is sure if we're out of the slump, if we're in a jobless recovery or if we're headed for doom. Whatever the future holds, the past is a heckuva lot clear. Here's a radio show that will help you understand part of how we drove the bus off the cliff.

Money | Smarts Schmartz | NYT

Smart guys ... the downfall of Wall Street? Read on. Hmm, seems to reinforce an earlier article I read in Wired. We gotta get those guys from MIT, Stanford and Caltech back into the labs where they can merely blow-up the world, not crater the markets.

Cities | Most Desirable | Harris Poll

most desirable cities ... would be interesting to understand better the basis on which those polled chose their preference ... i'd guess that cost of living was not high on the list (with nyc and sf being in the top five) and mild climate must not have been a must-have.

Money | Dow Nominal and Inflation Adjusted | www.crossingwallstreet.com

An interesting graphic on nominal and inflation-adjusted Dow trends ...

they're checking their list

Have you bought yours this year?

Telecom | Free 411 Service | Google

This is the best free 411 service I've tried. Avoid those nasty 411 charges from your phone company and use this service instead

Cars | Brand Game | CramerSweeney

Know your cars? Test yourself here.

Work | How's Your Cube | Lifehacker

Find your dream or nightmare workspace here. I'm leaning towards the multiple-monitor workspace with minimal paper clutter ... and appreciate the creative decor of some of the featured shops.

Work | Job Distribution Graphic | Job Voyager

Interesting graphic showing the transition of the workforce in the US

Money | Social Security Strategies | Various

It's your money, you might as well work to optimize it. Here are two discussions on maximizing your Social Security benefits. One from AARP and one from Scott Burns. The AARP article was particularly helpful, in my view.

Weather | Spin vs Zap | NWS

This picture has also been distributed as a photoshopped version adding an oil rig and a caption indicating that it was taken in Texas. Turns-out that the image was from Florida ... lightning capital ... and without the rig. Dramatic enough stuff, I'd say. Would definitely rethink my exit plan after seeing the funnel illuminated by the bolt.

Humor | Ingenuity | TIFI

Ingenious or incomprehensible? Some great use of duct tape and bailing wire here. Not for the code-compliant.

Vacation Planner

Not exactly a staycation brochure ... not sure which one freaks me out more ... the hike to the temple or the shelf bike ride.

Demographics | Boomer Migration | ERS

It's worked pretty well before ... as the boomers go, so goes the money. Interesting research paper on boomer migration to rural areas and small towns ... a potential change in the landscape?

Attitude | Smile & Move (tm) | GiveMore

Politics | Noonan on Palin | WSJ

Love her or hate her ... there's no middle ground with Sarah Palin. Here's Peggy Noonan's (WSJ editorial writer) take on Sarah Palin.

Money | Home Prices | Aspen Daily News

Ready for a dose of unreality? Here's a recent article about home prices in Pitkin County, Colorado ... and of one modest SFR. Comparables? Of a 56K SF home? Oh, yeah!

History | The Fog of War | Google/Sony

KC Thunder, El Gato de Guadalupe

work | where the supply/demand is favorable | wanted

interesting tool to look at supply/demand ratios by location in various occupations ....

music | african thunderstorm + | kim komando

looking for something a bit different ... a well-known tune with a twist?

Health | Healthcare & Ageing Populations | Economist

Another viewpoint on healthcare challenges faced by the US and other developed nations. Do we have the mental toughness to tackle some of the tough decisions that need to be made?

Work | Go West, Young Worker | Slate

The new gold rush ... or maybe I should say the new green rush?

Money | Social Security Strategies | CRR BC

More than one way to finesse social security benefits ... here's the link to a pdf for a summary of some strategies of which you may not be aware. The Boston College Center for Retirement Research has numerous articles, some more academically-oriented than others, available at their home page.

Money | Social Security Strategies | USN&WR

A pretty straight-forward explanation of strategies for dealing with social security benefits for retirees ...here's the link

Money | Possible Savings? | Billshrink.com

A site worth checking-out, especially if you're looking for a rapid way to compare cell plans, credit card plans, even gasoline prices. Claims to be independent. Worth a look.

Education | Reliving High School Daze | WSJ

Many folks say they'd never want to relive their high school years (I sure wouldn't). And this is part of that time that I would not care to repeat. Would you do a rerun of this experience? http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124337711110856009.html

Money | Group Insurance | WSJ.com

How big is a group for group health insurance? You might be surprised. Not for everyone, but there's another option discussed in this article.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124338117660756415.html

Life | Care and Feeding of Network Contacts | WSJ.com

haven't yet made the plunge into social networking sites ... but when I do I'll follow some of the suggestions in this article

Work | Starting Over as an Entrepreneur | WSJ.com

Useful approaches in this article for making the transition from employee to self-employed.

Tech | WinLive 1 Free Scanner | Microsoft

What with all the hype over just ONE of the malware worms out there, it's not a bad reminder that pc security is everyone's responsibility. Give this MS free safety scanner a try ... it will try to sell you a subscription, but that's optional. The scan is free. And, if you can't get to the site, that's a bad sign that your pc may be infected.

 

http://onecare.live.com/site/en-us/default.htm?s_cid=sah

Money | Mortgages, Refinancing, Info | Mortgage Professor

This is a great site to get lots of informed, unbiased guidance on residential mortgages. I particularly like the mortgage calculators at this sub-site where you can quickly evaluate the worthiness of a refi ... varying interest rates, points, fees, etc etc. With mortgage rates at a low point, now may be a good time to take a 2nd look at your 1st mortgage (pun intended).

Life | Complaining | WSJ

An interesting perspective on complaining. I've sent away for one of the purple bracelets ... then I'll see if it makes a difference.

Money | AIG Financial Products History | TPM

Remember Drexel Burnham Lambert and Michael Milken and the junk bond meltdown of 1990? Surprise, surprise! Guess where the financial whiz-kids that started AIG Financial Products came from? Looks like math skills are the WMD's of the MBA world!

World | When Help Does Harm | WSJ

I heard an interview with the author on NPR and then saw this book review in the WSJ. Interesting case made that Western aid to Africa has basically created completely aid-dependent economies. Why work hard and invest when you can just wait for the check? Not mentioned in the book review but discussed on NPR was PRC's approach which is to do business in Africa (which has 9 of the 10 most hostile business environements in the world) and help local African companies grow, hire workers, push for infrastructure improvements, etc.

Obama, Clinton, Bono, World Bank, UN ... are you listening?

Green | Dorm Room to Wal*Mart | WSJ

Unusual approach by this guy, Tom Szaky. He rejects the eco-chic Whole Foods model and instead goes for mainstream consumers with a combination of environmental virtue and low price.

Money | AIG Bonuses | Scribd

Can AIG hold the US government hostage? Check this white paper. Short answer, yup! So they said screw the taxpayers and pay the bonuses. Our response should be a special, Executive Order driven 150% federal income tax on all bonuses paid to financial companies receiving federal bailout money. Gotta pay bonuses anyway? OK. But we're clawing it back, suckahs!

Money | How to Fix Your Life in 2009 | WSJ

Some useful advice in here.

I'm starting my own project to make our money stretch further. Some simple steps:

• called the cable (TV/Internet) company and said I was looking at their competitors' offers and could they do better on price. Yep, they could. Knocked 20% off the price and made it retroactive for 2 months.
  
• told our insurance agent that with money tight we needed to shop rates (which I did) ... she found discounts and new rates for the same coverage that knocked 25% off our auto insurance ...
  
• took our POTS (plain old telephone service) landline services down to minimum ... no inside wiring maintenance, no long distance ... and knocked about $10/month off that bill ... not ready to give-up that landline yet but that may be sooner rather than later
• will also look at our cellphone bill (have a pretty good plan but may explore the pay-as-you-go services) and our DVD by mail plan (cheap entertainment that can, maybe, be even cheaper)

and more to come.

I don't love this new economic situation but maybe we'll all become smarter consumers as a result. A little silver lining in that cloud.

Tech | Cool Screensaver | Wired

You might like this cool screensaver.

Money | Stocks v Bonds | Bloomberg

Business | Weathering the Storm | Daily Breeze

From a local businesswoman running a small printing business in this economy:"Morales acknowledged the difficulties of running a business amid a recession.

"We feel strongly you have to market," she said. "Instead of huddling through the storm, you have to be out there on deck.""

Right-on. Get busy and move forward. It's not about hunkering down, it's about getting to it.

Money | Who Killed Wall Street? This Guy! | Wired

Hard to believe but seems credible. A brilliant mathematician developed a formula for risk assessment associated with debt pools. It greatly simplified risk analysis in the fixed income world and facilitated an explosion in collateralized debt obligations. And, in parallel with the CDO growth, credit default swaps also exploded. The market for CDS grew to $62 trillion. Yep, with a big T. For scale, the 2007 US GDP was $14 trillion.

Check out the article in Wired.

The formula also apparently over-simplified the analysis and caused ratings agencies to greatly underestimate the risk of pooled debt, especially in the mortgage market. When the economy weakened and mortgage defaults began to grow, the model fell apart. And so did the risk assessment of CDOs. And then Bear, Stearns ... and Lehman Brothers ... and etc etc.

For you conspiracy buffs out there, the mathematician behind this formula was born in China and has since returned there. Put that one in your alt-war pipe and smoke it!

Life | Jaded? | Conan

Check out this video ...

Money | Take Some Control | WSJ

Some good counsel here regarding striking a suitable balance between frozen inaction and panicked frenzy.

Life | Asking Doctors Tough Questions | WSJ

After my own little escapade at the local version of "Kingdom Hospital", I'm going to pay a lot more attention to articles like this one.

Economy | Layoff peak? | FirstRain

Maybe some good news on the job front? Time will tell ...

Money | How Wrong Can You Be | NAR

You've gotta laugh at these guys ... talk about drinking their own bathwater until they call it champagne!

Money | Hungry? Here's a Solution | Reuters

Work | Selling Expertise on the Internet | WSJ

An interesting article about another way to raise a little $$ via the Internet. I especially like the "Mechanical Turk" www.mturk.com approach.

Tech | Amazing Text Processor | WSJ

Money | Inside the Meltdown | Frontline

For a pretty comprehensive video summary of when/how the wheels started to come off the US/global financial markets, watch the PBS Frontline show from early Feb 2008 at this link. The consequences of choosing moral hazard over systemic risk became evident when Lehman Brothers was allowed to fail. Unfortunately, even a small hole can sink a large ship. Something to keep in mind going forward.

Money | November 2007 Interview with Warren Buffett | CNBC

Very interesting to re-read this November 2007 CNBC interview of Warren Buffett from the near-peak in the equity markets. Most of Warren Buffet's "advice to young people" is more useful than ever. For the near term, I'm expecting thrift to be the winning strategy.

1.  He bought his first share of stock at age 11 and he now regrets that he started too late! 
2.  He bought a small farm at age 14 with savings from delivering newspapers.
3.  He still lives in the same, small 3-bedroom house in midtown Omaha that he bought after he got married 50 years ago.  He says that he has everything he needs in that house.  His house does not have a wall or a fence. 
4.  He drives his own car everywhere and does not have a driver or security people around him. 
5.  He never travels by private jet, although he owns the world's largest private jet company. 
6.  His company, Berkshire Hathaway, owns 63 companies.  He writes only one letter each year to the CEOs of these companies, giving them goals for the year.  He never holds meetings or calls them on a regular basis.  He has given his CEO's only two rule! s. Rule number 1: Do not lose any of your shareholder's money.  Rule number 2: Do not forget rule number 1. 
7.  He does not socialize with the high society crowd.  His pastime after he gets home is to make himself some popcorn and watch television.
8.  Bill Gates, the world's richest man, met him for the first time only 5 years ago.  Bill Gates did not think he had anything in common with Warren Buffet.  So he had scheduled his meeting for only a half hour.  But when Gates met him, the meeting lasted for ten hours and Bill Gates became a devotee of Warren Buffet.
9.  Warren Buffet does not carry a cell phone, nor have a computer on his desk.

His advice to young people:  'Stay away from credit cards and invest in yourself and remember:
A.  Money doesn't create man, but it is the man who created money. 
B.  Live your life as simple as you are.
C.  Don't do what others say.  Just listen to them, but do what makes you feel good.
D.  Don't go on brand name.  Wear those things in which you feel comfortable. 
E.  Don't waste your money on unnecessary things.  Spend on those who really are in need.
F.  After all, it's your life.  Why give others the chance to rule your life?'

Nutrition | The Iams Diet | Unattributed

The Iams Diet

Don't ask a retiree a dumb question ...

The next time someone asks you a dumb question wouldn't you like to respond like this?

Yesterday I was at my local Wal-Mart buying a large bag of Iams Dog Food for my loyal pet, Abby, the Wonder Dog and was in the checkout line when a woman behind me asked if I had a dog.

What did she think I had, an elephant? So since I'm retired and have little to do, on impulse I told her that no, I didn't have a dog, I was starting the "Iams Diet" again. I added that I probably shouldn't, because I ended up in the hospital last time, but that I'd lost 50 pounds before I awakened in an intensive care ward with tubes coming out of most of my orifices and IVs in both arms.

I told her that it was essentially a perfect diet and that the way that it works is to load your pants pockets with Iams nuggets and simply eat one or two every time you feel hungry. The food is nutritionally complete so it works well and I was going to try it again. (I have to mention here that practically everyone in line was now enthralled with my story.)  Horrified, she asked if I ended up in intensive care because the dog food poisoned me. I told her no, I stepped off a curb to sniff an Irish  Setter's ass and a car hit us both.  I thought the guy behind her was going to have a heart attack, he was laughing so hard. Wal-Mart won't let me shop there anymore. Better watch what you ask retired people. They have all the time in the world to think of crazy things to say.

Money | View on Economy | Blackstone

Blackstone's Steve Schwarzman from today's earnings conference call for the beleaguered private equity shop:

Our view is the economy will continue to deteriorate sharply this quarter and next quarter and be pretty weak second quarter and maybe sort of see stability fourth quarter, and then I think you will have a pretty, and a weak 2010 although I don't think it will keep declining…I think 2011 will show some growth but still be well below the levels of 2006 and 2007. My own view is you may not get back to 2006 and 2007 a long time because we have sort of an emotional and psychic shift going on in America which is back to basics don't live on leverage, live within your means, more humble life styles, less extravagant consumption, savings and all of that sort of stuff.

I believe that a lot of people in America are legitimately scared and have seen their life savings or what they perceived as their net worth largely either wiped out or cut in half. That's going to forge fundamental behavioral differences and that will retard the growth."

Money | US Household Debt to GDP | Econometrics

Who to blame for the current economic mess? Republicans - Democrats - Politicians? Investment or Commercial Bankers? Wall Street or Main Street? We need to look in the mirror, folks. Check-out the trend of US Household Debt as % of GDP. See anything wrong here? I understand that the 100% current ratio was last seen in 1929. Here's that link from an NPR show on 2.27.09.

Money | Renters Lose Edge on Homeowners | WSJ

Eighteen year average of mortgage to payments compared to rents has trended around 125%. Mortgage costs blew through this trend line in 2003, peaked at 175% in 2006-2007 and returned to the trend in 2008. A composite of 79 metro cities in the trend. All real estate is local, of course, but regression to the mean is a powerful force. More correction is in store, I'm sure ... but the very worst may be behind us. One can always hope. Article.

Energy | Dell Warms Up Data Centers | WSJ

An opportunity for corporate energy and IT managers ... check-out this article on Dell running their data centers at up to 78F instead of the usual 10F below normal office temp. Other savings ideas in this news bite. In today's economy, the race goes to the thrifty.

Money | Cost of College | Kedrosky

Economy | New Term - Babygloomers | Daily Telegraph

The Babygloomers - defined as those who are having to support both their own children and their parents - are being stretched to the limit as they also struggle to cover the cost of their own family, which often includes grown up children who cannot to afford to leave home.They have had also had to cope with an increase in their own cost of living as the recession takes hold.

Economy | Job Loss | Time.com

Life | Darwin Award Candidate | DailyMail

A Darwin awards candidate for 2009

Humor | New Logo? | Kedrosky

Learn | Vocabulary | MMK

Here's your vocabulary lesson for today:
Liquidity

When you look at your investments and wet your pants

Fun | Card Tricks | Malone

if you like card tricks, you'll enjoy this video

Humor | Statistics & Gates |

Have you heard the old statisticians' joke about Bill Gates walking into a room of 30 people and raising everyone's average net worth by $1.6-billion?

Money | Help for Homeowners | WSJ

Programs to help-out homeowners who are way behind on their mortgage payments and underwater in terms of loan-to-value haven't been effective. Here's a somber assessment from the WSJ:

"The latest embattled foreclosure-prevention program is Hope for Homeowners, which was approved by Congress last summer and supposed to help 400,000 homeowners. Only 357 people have signed up so far for the voluntary program. The Department of Housing and Urban Development, which is administering the program, acknowledges that it has been encumbered by high fees and narrow eligibility requirements.

Another government program, FHASecure, was intended to help 80,000 homeowners who had fallen behind on their payments after their adjustable interest rates reset. It has helped only 4,100 delinquent borrowers refinance since September 2007 and will stop taking new loan applications as of Wednesday.

The full article is found here.

Travel | David in Thailand '71-'72 | Picasa

Money | Read This Before You Remodel | WSJ

The HGTV/Contractor/Designer/HomeDepot/Mortgagebroker juggernaut drives on. But does it make sense? Viewing your home as a fashion statement will line several folks' pockets but certainly not yours. Check this for a current perspective on what is common sense in the remodeling world.

Life | Action Sport | Vimeo

Bored? here's a new action sport for you ...

Tech | China Internet Users > US Pop in 2009 | Kedrosky

According to some new research from JPMorgan, 2009 will be the year that China Internet users surpass the entire population of the U.S.

Life | What have you changed your mind about | Kedrosky

From Paul Kedrosky's blog

What Have You Changed Your Mind About?

What have you changed your mind about? This year's Edge question is the preceding one, and John Brockman gets answers (many of them interesting and/or unpredictable) from a long list of people, including scientists, economics, psychiatrists, writers, etc.

So, what have I changed my mind about? it is a question that has been gnawing at me a great deal lately, with a general sense that changing my mind on things is more important than ever, and that I'm not doing it often enough. Not, of course, in some whimsical sense -- today I like blue,tomorrow I like red -- but in the sense that the world is saying on many levels that so much of what I thought I knew is wrong. I can hardly keep up with the long list of things that I've changed my mind about recently, so many that I feel a little like Billy Pilgrim, that I've come unstuck in time.

Some examples of things I've changed my mind about in the last year:

• Whether there are institutions that are too big to fail (No)
• Whether phones need keyboards (No)
• Why TV exists (I don't know anymore)
• Whether bond yields can go negative (Yes, obviously)
• The important of ignorance (Vastly underrated)
• Whether economics matters (Maybe)
• Mountain-biking (Not just for wahoos who don't ski)
• The role of contrarianism (Important, but entirely misunderstood too)
• Whether blogs matter (More than I thought they did)
• Whether Twitter is any use (Yes)
• Whether AM radio is a wasteland (Yes, but still matters)
• Large data sets (Way more dangerous than I thought they were)
• Reading books on screen (Totally doable)
• Venture capital (Much closer to unnecessary)
• Hedge funds (I've gone from it being mostly about chance to it being almost entirely about chance)
• Sincerity (Under-rated)
• Market valuation (Historical numbers matter only minimally)
• Technical analysis (It works until it doesn't, but it can work)
• Agnosticism (It's a cop-out. I'm an atheist.)
• Warren Buffett (Smart, but also the ultimate market limit order that will one day be disastrously taken out)
• Babies (I now smile inanely at other people's)
• China recession (Better than 50% chance it happens, up from near zero)
• Vanity Fair (Worth reading for more than the pictures)
• Eschatological leanings (Rational response to universal entropy)
• Current account deficits (Hugely important, but can last far longer under unique circumstances)
• Wholesale funding model (Works until it doesn't)
• Debt (Even more necessary more dangerous than I thought it was)
• 50-year Treasury (Has to happen)
• Lessons from Japan bubble/decline (It is a cop-out to say they didn't try hard enough)
• Marx (Funnier than I thought he was)
• Bonds and bond market (Baffled why I was under-allocated for so long)
• Professional sports (Gone from being a waste of time to a _complete_ waste of time with looming bankruptcies)
• This time it's different (Sometimes it really is different)
• Whether oil can get to $200/$20 again in 12 months (Yes and yes)

I'm sure I'll come with more, but I'd cheerfully have others add theirs.